Industry analysts think electric vehicles will account for one sixth of the car market next year despite some automakers scaling back EV plans
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- Sales of EVs across the globe are expected to rise by 30 percent in 2025, according to predictions by industry experts.
- Analysts at S&P Global Mobility claim EVs will account for 16.7 percent of vehicle sales in 2025, up from 13.2 percent in 2024.
- The upbeat projection comes as multiple automakers are changing electrification plans to slow down EV rollout in favor of hybrids.
Is the EV boom over? Not according to respected industry analysts, who say sales of electric vehicle are set to grow by 30 percent in 2025 even as various automakers are watering down their electrification plans, claiming that demand is too weak.
Experts at S&P Global Mobility predict that sales of battery-powered electric vehicles will hit 15.1 million units next year, taking their market share to 16.7 percent of global car sales. Although the final figures aren’t yet in for 2024, estimates put sales at 11.6 million BEVs, giving them a 13.2 percent market share.
India Will Grow, But The US Depends On Trump’s Policy
Growth will vary dramatically from region to region, the study says, and will be influenced by many factors including government policy, tariffs and incentives, plus of course the availability of a suitable charging infrastructure.
Related: Global EV Sales Shatter Records In November Thanks To China’s Unstoppable Growth
A look at the table below highlights just how different EV demand is in different parts of the world. Electric cars are expected to account for just 7.5 percent of total sales in India, for instance, though the 117 percent year-on-year change, means they’re gaining ground fast.
In the US, EV sales are projected to grow by 36 percent to 11.2 percent of the market, though much of the success depends on what incoming White House resident Donald Trump and his team has planned for EV tax credits and tariffs on cars built outside the US.
Predicted 2025 EV sales by region
China Is On Fire
China has always been ahead of the curve when it comes to buying EVs, which are expected to grab almost 30 percent of the country’s car market. But because that share is already huge, the rate of growth isn’t as rapid as in other regions: it’ll climb 20 percent versus 2024. Even so, EVs in China are expected to outsell ICE vehicles for the first time in 2025, beating the government’s target of electric vehicles to account for 50 percent of new car sales by 2035.
However, even though analysts predict that this trend will continue well into the future and claim that “China’s EV juggernaut is unstoppable”, an oversupply of models, stiff competition and price wars will result in the demise of many local brands.
More: Porsche To Shut 30% Of Its Dealerships In China After Sales Tumble
Moreover, European, Japanese and US automakers, who a few years ago used to dominate the world’s biggest car market, are already facing a steep decline in their sales as buyers turn to domestic brands. In 2020, foreign cars accounted for 64 percent of new car sales, while in 2024 their share has plunged to just 37 percent.
Europe Will Expand Despite Germany’s Troubles
We’ve heard about dismal EV sales in Germany during this year and how the removal of state subsidies has impacted demand for electric cars. Alongside the aforementioned decline in China, they have resulted in the likes of the VW Group facing a serious turmoil, with huge job cuts and even the closing of factories being proposed by the management and the workers’ union threatening with massive strikes if those plans go forward.
But the study still anticipates EV sales in western and central Europe will grow by 43 percent, taking their market share to more than 20 percent, despite France and Spain being set to slash, or at least dial down, subsidies in 2025.
