Do you feel like you’re always coming down with a cold, flu or some other winter virus? There may be a reason for that ― and it could come down to where you live in the United States, according to new data published by the Leighton School of Nursing at Marian University in Indiana.
In the report, researchers looked at 15 factors that can impact virus transmission and concluded that certain characteristics of some locations could be linked with a greater chance of getting sick.
The factors include high population density, where virus spread can be blamed partly on crowding; poor air quality, which can impact respiratory health; a large population of children under 14 (children are known to more easily spread viruses); certain weather patterns that could make viruses more transmissible; low flu vaccination rates; and difficulty accessing nutritious food, which can harm the immune system.
In the report, each of 100 U.S. cities was given a rating out of 100. The higher the number, the more likely you are to get sick.
Here are the cities, according to the report:
- Bakersfield, California (71.74)
- McAllen, Texas (70.85)
- El Paso, Texas (69.71)
- Philadelphia (69.18)
- Las Vegas (64.79)
- Fresno, California (62.42)
- Detroit (62.27)
- Chicago (60.97)
- Ogden, Utah (60.70)
- Riverside, California (59.84)
While the factors are certainly known to impact cold transmission and someone’s ability to fight off viruses, the results shouldn’t be taken as direct evidence this will happen. “This ranking draws from a range of data sources and factors, all crunched in the spirit of fun,” the report stated.
Additionally, medical professionals were not asked to weigh in on the report. So we chatted about the findings with Dr. William Schaffner, a professor of infectious disease at Vanderbilt University Medical Center in Nashville, Tennessee.
Schaffner said this data does have merit and tied it back to previous studies and research that have looked at respiratory viruses ― particularly the flu ― and correlated hospitalizations with something called the social vulnerability index, “which is an amalgam of a whole lot of issues, including things such as crowding, which these investigators have looked at,” Schaffner noted.
Research shows that neighborhoods that have more crowding, for instance, experience higher rates of illnesses severe enough for hospitalization, he said.
Beyond crowding, social vulnerability metrics include not having health insurance, living in a household with children under 17 and other factors.
The report by Marian University also weighs factors known as social determinants of health, which “are the conditions in the environments where people are born, live, learn, work, play, worship and age that affect a wide range of health, functioning, and quality-of-life outcomes and risks,” according to the Office of Disease Prevention and Health Promotion.
Poor air quality, lack of access to healthy food and exercise — all things this new report also looked at — fall in this category and are known to impact health outcomes.
There are other factors that can determine whether you get sick.
The datapoints in the new Marian University report don’t offer a full how-likely-are-you-to-get-sick picture, Schaffner noted. For example, aspects like travel, specifically holiday travel around this time of year, account for illnesses, too.
“So, there are other things that impact how likely it is that you are to pick up one of these respiratory viruses. But nonetheless, there are issues that are still valid I think in this study. I’m sure the authors would not promote this as the complete explanation, but it’s a partial and interesting explanation,” he said.
What’s not clear, though, is how the researchers defined a cold. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention tracks flu levels, RSV levels and COVID-19 levels, for instance, but not colds.
“We don’t have data on colds other than anecdotes,” Schaffner said.
Because of their oft-overlapping symptoms, such as fever, cough and congestion, “somebody’s cold may be somebody else’s influenza or RSV or mild COVID, for example,” Schaffner said.
Catherine McQueen via Getty Images
Here’s how you can protect yourself from getting sick this winter.
Colds and other winter respiratory viruses are a reality, whether you live in one of the areas mentioned by the report or not. Viruses such as the flu and norovirus also are surging throughout the country right now.
Certain habits can help keep you protected from the circulating winter illnesses.
“The first thing is we have vaccines against influenza, COVID and RSV,” said Schaffner. Getting these vaccines can keep you from becoming very sick or being hospitalized.
Practicing good hand hygiene — washing your hands for 20 seconds with soap and water — is another way to stay well, he said. It’s also a good idea to try to “stay away from people who are coughing and sneezing, which is very difficult during this winter season,” Schaffner added.
If you are at high risk of hospitalization or complications from a winter virus, wearing a mask offers an additional layer of protection, he said.
“If you become ill yourself, stay home, don’t go to work or school because you’ll only spread what you’ve got to your friends or your fellow workers or fellow students,” Schaffner said.