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New research shows that dengue and chikungunya could soon become endemic in Europe. The study, published in The Lancet Planetary Health, was conducted by researchers in Sweden and Germany and examined the spread of dengue and chikungunya in Europe for over three decades. Here’s what it showed and why it blamed climate change
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Europe has a new problem.
A new study shows that dengue and chikungunya could soon become endemic on the continent.
The reason for this?
Climate change is causing mosquitoes to spread to Europe.
But what happened? What do we know?
Let’s take a closer look:
What do we know?
The study was published in The Lancet Planetary Health.
It was conducted by researchers in Sweden and Germany.
As per Politico, the study looked at the spread of dengue and chikungunya in Europe over the past three decades.
Dengue and chikungunya are spread by the Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes respectively.
Around half of the world’s population is at risk of dengue. There are an estimated 100–400 million infections occurring each year.
It is usually found in tropical and sub-tropical climes. In severe cases, dengue can be fatal.
Chikungunya is a disease caused by the virus of the same name.
The latter is known as a tiger mosquito. Its symptoms are remarkably close to that of dengue.
The data showed that as temperatures spiked since 2010, outbreaks have recurred more frequently and become worse.
“Our findings highlight that the EU is transitioning from sporadic outbreaks of Aedes-borne diseases towards an endemic state,” the study stated.
It found that the European Union in 2024, the hottest year on record, witnessed 304 dengue cases.
That number was “a historic peak compared with the combined total of 275 cases in the previous 15 years,” the study said.
Meanwhile, Italy, Croatia, France and Spain all saw dengue outbreaks.
“The trend suggests a progression from sporadic cases towards endemicity in these countries,” the study read.
Why is this happening?
Because global warming is making tiger mosquitos venture further north.
The French Indian Ocean island of Reunion, for example, recently witnessed a deadly outbreak of chikungunya.
The higher that temperatures go, the more the risk of outbreaks from tiger mosquitoes, the researchers said.
“Climatic variables emerged as the strongest predictors of outbreak risk, even after accounting for health-care expenditure and imported case numbers,” said the team including from Umea University (Sweden) and University of Heidelberg (Germany).
“Warmer summer temperatures were found to substantially elevate outbreak risk, particularly in urban and semi-urban settings, whereas human travel and mobility were found to facilitate the spread of these two Aedes-borne diseases,” they added.
Researchers said both dengue and chikungunya could increase five times their current rate by 2060 – if the worst climate change scenarios occur.
The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control in June 2024 found just 130 locally acquired cases of dengue in the EU/EEA in 2023.
That number was at 71 in the decade between 2010 and 2021.
According to European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control data, most outbreaks (95 per cent) took place between July and September of 2024, with 64 occurring in the third quarter of the year.
The study underscored the urgent need for robust public health measures, including stringent vector control, enhanced entomological and disease surveillance, citizen science, and early warning systems.
“In the context of a warming climate, mitigating the transition to endemicity will require proactive, vigilant, and well-targeted public health interventions,” the team said.
With inputs from agencies